Emmy Predictions: What Happens When One Network Has the Two Most-Nominated Series?

2 hours ago 5

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming OscarsEmmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change in response to buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.


Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: July 16, 2026): HBO Max wants it all.

The most-nominated network enters Phase 2 of the Emmy race with the year’s two most-nominated series, giving the platform a rare opportunity to capture television’s top drama and comedy prizes, and potentially make history across three major program categories.

“The Pitt,” the sophomore season of the breakout medical drama, leads all programs with 25 nominations. Close behind is “Hacks,” which earned 24 nominations, making it the most-nominated comedy series in Emmy history. The next closest is Apple TV’s horror-comedy “Widow’s Bay,” with 19.

It’s an uncommon achievement for a single network or platform to produce both the most-nominated drama and comedy series in the same year.

Apple TV accomplished the feat last year with “Severance” and “The Studio,” the latter of which became another comedy record-breaker. A year earlier, FX earned the distinction with “Shōgun” and “The Bear,” which at the time also became the most-nominated comedy series in Emmy history before ultimately losing the top comedy prize to Season 3 of “Hacks.”

And now, it is HBO Max’s turn.

The platform’s current dominance marks its first time leading both genres since 2017. (I misstated this distinction on this week’s episode of the Variety Awards Circuit Podcast.)

For HBO, however, this territory is familiar. The premium network led both drama and comedy nominations in consecutive years, in 2003 and 2004, with “The Sopranos,” “Six Feet Under” and “Sex and the City.” It repeated the feat during the latter half of the 2010s with “Game of Thrones,” “Westworld” and “Veep.”

Few programmers in Emmy history have consistently produced the leading drama and comedy contenders in the same ceremony. History, however, shows that nomination dominance does not always translate into Emmy glory.

Among the 18 instances in which a single network led the Emmy nominations in both drama and comedy, the series ultimately won only four times (22%).

Those successful double victories came twice for NBC with “Hill Street Blues” and “Cheers” in 1983 and 1984, again for NBC in 1987 with “L.A. Law” and “The Golden Girls,” and, finally, for HBO in 2016 with “Game of Thrones” and “Veep.”

Leading both genres reflects passion for programs for sure, but hardly guarantees a path to the big stage. Campaign strategy, momentum and voter sentiment during final-round voting will ultimately determine whether HBO Max can capitalize on its historic position and not fall to some of its closest competitors like Apple’s “Pluribus” in drama series and “Widow’s Bay” in comedy.

Notably, one statistic strongly favors another win for “The Pitt.”

The most-nominated program series of the Emmy year has won its corresponding top series category 41 times across 73 eligible ceremonies (56%).

Last year provided a rare exception when “Severance,” with 27 nominations, lost drama series to “The Pitt.” Before that upset, the most-nominated series had won its corresponding top category every year from 2015 through 2024.

“The Pitt” enters this part of the season not only with the largest nomination haul but also as the reigning champion after winning its debut season. Only four shows have won drama series for both their first and second seasons: “Hill Street Blues,” “Picket Fences,” “The West Wing” and “Mad Men.” Three of those four — except “Picket” — ultimately won at least four drama series Emmys overall.

(CBS’ “Mission: Impossible” and “The Defenders” also won the top drama prize in their first two seasons when the category carried different titles: “Outstanding Dramatic Series” and “Outstanding Program Achievement in the Field of Drama,” respectively.)

WIDOW’S BAY, Matthew Rhys, ‘Welcome to Widow’s Bay!’, (Season 1, ep. 101, aired April 29, 2026). photo: ©Apple TV+ / Courtesy Everett Collection ©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Collection

The stats suggest “Hacks” faces a slightly steeper climb.

While the series leads the comedy field in nominations and already owns the comedy series trophy for its third season, the most-nominated comedy has historically converted at a lower rate than its drama counterpart.

The most-nominated comedy series has won 25 out of 59 times in the current category format (or 42%). The frontrunner has been especially vulnerable in recent years, losing five of the past eight ceremonies, including 2023, when “The Bear” fell to “Hacks.”

Also worth noting: the last comedy series to win in non-consecutive years was “Everybody Loves Raymond,” which won for its seventh season in 2003 and again for its ninth and final season in 2005, with “Arrested Development” winning in between. Other comedies to accomplish the feat include “Murphy Brown,” “Cheers,” “All in the Family” and, in the category’s earliest years, “The Jack Benny Show.”

So, if HBO Max completes the coveted drama-comedy double, “The Pitt” appears to be the safer bet for a repeat victory, while “Hacks” will need to overcome some more historical statistics.

The streamer also has its sights set on an even rarer accomplishment.

Beef. (L to R) Oscar Isaac as Josh Martin, Carey Mulligan as Lindsay Crane-Martin in episode 201 of Beef. Cr. Courtesy of Netflix © 2026 COURTESY OF NETFLIX

In limited series, HBO Max’s “DTF St. Louis” earned 13 nominations, including directing, writing and supporting acting recognition for David Harbour, Jason Bateman, Richard Jenkins, Linda Cardellini and Joy Sunday. The network hopes to overtake Netflix’s “Beef,” which leads the limited series field with 16 nominations. The first iteration won this category.

“Beef” stars Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan appear well-positioned in the lead acting categories, while Harbour and Cardellini face a more crowded supporting field because of their co-stars nominated from the same series. Meanwhile, Charles Melton and Yuh-jung Youn enter their respective races without internal competition. That could be helpful down the road.

But here are some more numbers to consider. The limited series frontrunner has been the least reliable of the three major program categories. The most-nominated limited series has won 16 of 45 times (or 36%) — compared with 45% for drama and 42% for comedy.

Since 2021, the nomination leader for miniseries has lost four out of five times: “WandaVision” (2021), “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (2023), “True Detective: Night Country” (2024) and “The Penguin” (2025), which led with 23 nominations but lost to “Adolescence.” Only “The White Lotus” (2022) managed a victory.

The category has long produced “frontrunner” collapses, including HBO’s “Mildred Pierce” (20 nominations, 2011), which lost to “Downton Abbey,” and CBS’ “Lonesome Dove” (15 nominations, 1989), which fell to “War and Remembrance.”

Winning the top series prizes in drama, comedy and limited series in the same year remains one of the rarest accomplishments in Emmy history. It has happened only three times: HBO achieved the feat in 2015 with “Game of Thrones,” “Veep” and “Olive Kitteridge,” while NBC accomplished it twice, in 1996 with “ER,” “Frasier” and “Gulliver’s Travels,” and in 1987 with “L.A. Law,” “The Golden Girls” and “A Year in the Life.”

So in fairness, HBO has done it before. But can they do it again? That remains to be determined. But it is still early in Phase 2, and plenty can change before ballots are finalized.

Prediction updates are below, and chart rankings are underway on each category page.

Final-round voting runs Aug. 17-26 ahead of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 14 on NBC.

Projected nomination leaders (series): “Widow’s Bay” (10); “The Pitt” (7); “The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny” and “Beef” (6); “Love on the Spectrum” and “Wednesday” (4); “DTF St. Louis,” “Hacks,” “Pluribus” and “Survivor” (3)

Projected nomination leaders (networks): Netflix (26); HBO Max (25); Apple TV (18); NBC (10); ABC and Prime Video (7); CBS and Comedy Central (6); FX (5)

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Read Entire Article

🤖 Are you a robot?

Click the box to confirm you're human

I'm not a robot